NO BOX Required…

“Outside the Box”!!!

Sure, sounds good, but…

Where outside the box…exactly?

That’s what nobody ever tells you, they just want to go “outside the box”, to get some fresh thinking and ideas.

Where can we reliably go to get a fresher perspective?

I’d like to share a great story that provided me some direction and insight on this topic.

Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett’s investing partner) figured out how to be an effective weatherman during World War II by VERY FOCUSED and DIRECTED thinking outside the box.

Charlie determined the real “bottom line” of his weatherman job was, not surprisingly, keeping the airplane pilots safe.

So Charlie flipped the script and thought deeply about what he wanted to avoid, which was: losing any pilots in combat.

Pilots could be lost due to only two primary reasons: #1…excessive wing icing, or #2…inability to safely land somewhere when they were low on fuel.

Charlie made AVOIDING these situations the centerpiece of his military weather forecasting efforts.

Charlie was practicing the mental model of Inversion, which is:

Instead of aiming directly for your goal, think deeply about outcomes you WANT TO AVOID, and what steps and thinking can help you avoid those undesirable outcomes.

Let’s examine the concept of Inverting from The Process Perspective.

What situations do we want to AVOID as we work to craft robust manufacturing processes?

NEW Processes: Situations to AVOID

Situation #1

Equipment that does not address the (true) process needs and ultimately becomes an expensive “boat anchor”.

Situation #2

Expensive raw materials being used without question or understanding of cost-model impact.

Situation #3

Claiming victory too early and throwing unproven/unreliable concepts “over the wall” to production.

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EXISTING Processes: Situations to AVOID

Situation #4

Key Measurement Systems of unknown (and possibly unacceptable) capability.

Situation #5

Lack of reliable measurements with direct linkage to customer satisfaction.

Situation #6

Lack of understanding of current yields and the profitability impact potential of focused improvement projects.

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So, if avoiding the situations above makes complete sense, how can we do it? A (very partial) list includes:

• Obviously, we can work directly on the items above in a disciplined manner.

• Focus on Process Excellence & Process Stewardship.

• Manufacturability early and often.

• Bulletproof business cases.

• Parallel paths on gating items.

• Fresh data.

• Sound, planned, and documented experiments.

• Small core team of contributors.

• Metrics…develop early…may be big job!

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My main learning from this line of thinking is the power of deceptively simple ideas. The Inversion Mental Model is very simple to understand. But---I am truly amazed at its power and essentially universal applicability. It is almost a directed form of “non-stupid” thinking, which is frequently discussed in this newsletter! The Charlie Munger YouTube video where he discusses Inverting (and lots of other fascinating stuff) is at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WO8aB4fEXs8 An excellent primer on Inversion by Shane Parrish of Farnam Street is at: https://fs.blog/2013/10/inversion/

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CHALLENGE TO READERS

Please think about you and your organization’s focus, efforts, and attention…

• Do you systematically try to avoid problems? If so, what has been your largest success? Share it with others to generate momentum.

• What has been your most recent case of “putting out a fire”? Can you work on (hopefully permanently) avoiding the problem? Why or why not?

I’d like to know what you think of the Inversion Mental Model. Has thinking about it provided you with useful insights and ideas? If you email us, we will get back to you promptly. Thanks!

All the Best,

Marty

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