Fun with EQUATIONS!

Fun with equations, sure! That sounds like a stretch! Well, let’s see what we can do. Here is the equation: E + R = O, where: E = Event R = Response to the event E O = Outcome resulting from Event & Response This is a simple but quite powerful equation or concept. It is actually more of a “mental model” than a definitive quantitative equation. Regardless, we can still profit from thinking a bit about it. Let’s think about E + R = O from The Process Perspective, for different stage innovation projects... RESEARCH Scenario Event A research project is gathering momentum and generating excitement. However, the process development work has been virtually non-existent, and the focus has been more on the excitement and novelty of the research. Best Response and Outcome Assign and fund some experienced Process Builders to work alongside the researchers. Build the research process, focusing on making the process visible and understanding key material inputs. Ensure new measurements and metrics are developed to provide sound guidance and direction. Typical Response and Outcome Not worry about manufacturing and assume no problems will develop. “Throw” the ill-defined research project “over the wall” to production and hope for the best. Deal with the resulting production circus by declaring an urgent “state of emergency”.

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DEVELOPMENT Scenario Event A few samples from a new process/material in development have been provided to a customer, who loves them and wants many more, immediately. Management asks how quickly mass production can begin and what equipment needs to be built right now. Best Response and Outcome Perform a very systematic and disciplined Manufacturability Assessment, by running the process of choice ruthlessly in a simulated production mode. Success criteria for passage to full manufacturing must be agreed to BEFORE the Manufacturability Assessment and management support must be enlisted to make hard choices and “let the chips fall where they may”. Typical Response and Outcome The equipment design group moves forward with the existing lab process, warts and all. The “warts and all” machine is duplicated to provide more capacity. Production begins and never meets the hoped for performance. The worst case situation is for the shiny new equipment to be expensive “boat anchors” and production plans to be scrapped. Don’t laugh and consider this implausible: this exact situation happened to Apple with synthetic sapphire, with a resulting loss in excess of $500 million USD. This case study was covered in detail in my 5/17/18 newsletter.

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PRODUCTION Scenario Event A key customer has big problems (that impact their business) with a batch of your production manufacturing output. This is an unusual situation that does not happen normally, but it is happening more frequently lately. The customer has told you in unequivocal terms that this problem must be “fixed yesterday”. Best Response and Outcome Respond with a short-term containment strategy in conjunction with a longer-term root-cause fix strategy. Understand the key drivers of product variability by ruthlessly and closely “listening to the process” and performing designed experiments. Test proposed solutions in manufacturing to see if they indeed turn the variability problem “on and off”. Ensure proposed solution works with a wide range of incoming materials. Typical Response and Outcome Respond with a short-term containment strategy coupled with a long term “inspecting in quality” approach. Start root-cause investigation only when the “inspecting in quality” system spectacularly fails and the customer insists on a more sound and believable approach. -- A comment/caveat… Obviously, E + R = O is not an ironclad promise of an exact outcome. Rather, it is a useful mental model. We should use this mental model in conjunction with thinking in terms of probabilities for various outcomes and scenarios.

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My main learning from this line of thinking has been the power of taking action early, before the manufacturing “window closes” and changes become much more expensive and troublesome. An unrelenting focus on root-cause understanding and solutions will help guide the team to develop truly robust and dependable manufacturing processes. Some acknowledgements: Brian Knight introduced me to the concept of E+R=O and he has provided many useful insights about this subject. The originator of the E+R=O concept seems a bit uncertain. It may have been Urban Meyer, the football coach!

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CHALLENGE TO READERS

Please think about your organizations key processes, including both existing manufacturing processes and new processes in research and development…

• What have been the most significant (to the business) “Process Events” over the last 3 years?

• What have your responses been to these events? Could you/your organization have done better? Is there still time to make a course-correction on a current project?

I’d like to know what you think of E + R = O. Has thinking about it provided you with useful insights and ideas? If you email us, we will get back to you promptly. Thanks!

All the Best,

Marty

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